Mapping malaria risk among children in Cote d'Ivoire using Bayesian geo-statistical models.

RASO G, SCHUR N, UTZINGER J, KOUDOU BG, TCHICAYA ES, ROHNER F, N’GORAN EK, SILUÉ KD, MATTHYS B, ASSI S, TANNER M, VOUNATSOU P.

May 2012, Malaria Journal

Using different data sources, a systematic review was carried out to compile and georeference survey data on Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence in Cote d’Ivoire, focusing on children aged 16 years. The period from 1988 to 2007 was covered. A suite of Bayesian geo-statistical logistic regression models was fitted to analyse malaria risk. High-risk areas were mainly found in the north-central and western area, while relatively low-risk areas were located in the north at the country border, in the northeast, in the south-east around Abidjan, and in the central-west between two high prevalence areas. The malaria risk map at high spatial resolution gives an important overview of the geographical distribution of the disease in Cote d’Ivoire. It is a useful tool for the national malaria control programme and can be utilized for spatial targeting of control interventions and rational resource allocation.